Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Attacking Iran to fix Iraq

Just when you thought the Bush Administration had botched things up as bad as humanly possible, they find new and creative paths to catastrophe. The latest in a long run of amazingly counterproductive moves involves an unprovoked attack on Iran. The neocons have somehow arrived at the absurd conclusion that attacking Iran will help the situation in Iraq despite over whelming evidence to the contrary.

Recently, US troops raided the Iranian Consulate in the Kurdish area in Northern Iraq. What is significant is the immediate reaction from both Kurdish and Iraqi Government Officials condemning the raid and calling for the release of the detained Iranians. It is obvious that the Iranians currently have tremendous influence at the very highest levels of the Iraqi Government. The "United Iraqi Alliance, a group of pro Iranian political parties curently hold 140 of the 275 assembly seats in the Iraqi Assembly. One of the most powerful militias, the Badre brigade, currently operating in Iraq was trained and armed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Iran has even signed a military cooperation agreement with Iraq. It should be fairly clear the any aggression against Iran would bring immediate reactions in Iraq. The Iraqi militias trained by the Iranians are no doubt prepared to carry out attacks against American troops, and we should keep in mind that the President is sending an additional 20,000 targets for them to attack.

One common phrase used regarding the Iranian influnce in Iraq is "while the US controls the air in Iraq, Iran controls the ground." Attacking Iran would bring immediate disastrous consequences for our troops should the Iranians decide to flex their muscle in Iraq. The Iranians could easily smuggle heavy arms and even troops across the border for major attacks against US interests. Ayatollah Sistani, the senior Shiite Cleric in Iraq may very well declare a holy Jihad against the US and we would face the wrath of 15 million Iraqi Shiites. Sistani holds so much influence over the Iraqi Assembly that he is generally advised before any major actions are taken.

It is quite clear to most people who have followed political events in the Middle East for the last several years that an attack on Iran would bring immediate disastrous consequences in the Region. The worldwide economic consequences, should the Iranians decide to retaliate by disrupting oil production, are nearly incalculable. These factors should be enough to deter even the most hardened war hawk from even contemplating such a move. However ladies and gentlemen, we are talking about the Bush administration. Therfore, it is almost guaranteed that this military action is coming. It looks like this administration is bent on hitting the trifecta, losing three wars at once, and I fear that we will wake up to the danger of these very sick men only after its too late.

No comments: