Saturday, January 20, 2007

Hillary Announces......

It's official, Hillary has entered the 2008 Presidential race. The field is crowded with serious contenders including John Edwards, Barak Obama, and of course Mrs. Clinton, but this time around, race itself is going to have a unique effect on the democratic primary. Unlike Shirley Chisholm, Jesse Jackson, or Al Sharpton, Barak Obama is going to dramatically change the dynamics of the primaries. Senator Obama is going to take nearly every African American vote in the democratic party, anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling them self. The other candidates will be put in the position of completing for the white democratic votes. In my opinion this dynamic is huge. Certainly the candidates must realize this, and if they don't, they soon will after the first few states make it clear.

New Hampshire Poll
Barack Obama - 23%
Hillary Clinton - 19%
John Edwards - 19%
John Kerry - 5%
Wesley Clark - 3%
Joe Biden - 3%
Dennis Kucinich - 1%
Bill Richardson - 1%
Tom Vilsack - 1%
Not Sure - 22%

The biggest problem Hillary Clinton has is her politics. She has proven to be much more of a center right wing candidate than anyone would have ever imagined when Bill was in the White House. Clearly much further to the right than her husband. The first real evidence of this was her position on flag burning, since then her positions on Iraq and Iran have demonstrated that her foreign policy is likely too far right and too hawkish for most democratic voters. Though she has the greatest politician of our era by her side, sooner or later she is going to have to explain her hawkish ways and that may be her downfall. Iraq is a bloody hellhole and it certainly won't get any better as presidential campaign plays out. I'm not saying Hillary won't win, but it would surprise me if she does.

Oh, did I mention warhawk John McCain facing the same fate?

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