Republican Woes

The Republican Party is suffering from a classic problem, climbing the ladder of success only to find that it is leaning against the wrong wall. The Party worked for many years to create a base of supporters who would accept a rigid right wing ideology as part of their culture. The strategy has been very successful in the Southern States and has taken hold to some extent in many other parts of the Country. This Republican base amounts to the last 22% of Americans who still support President Bush. Unfazed by the dramatic economic and political consequences of the last eight years, they also make up the lions share of the 64% of all Republicans who want ultra-conservative Sarah Palin as their 2012 Presidential nominee, a desire that is likely shared by 100% of all Democrats. The GOP has successfully convinced them that the political center is really the left, and that this imaginary left is the enemy of God and social order. That being the case, any policies supported by the "left" would be immoral by default.

Having been soundly rejected by the electorate, the Republican Party is left to dress its wounds and develop strategies for 2012. During this election cycle the voters sent a clear signal that political moderation is in order. As a result some GOP pragmatists are signalling a willingness to accept some level of bipartisanship and move somewhat reluctantly towards the center. The problem they will soon encounter is that they have so effectively trained their base to be extremist that they will reject any move towards ideological moderation. Southern Republicans in Congress may face losing to more conservative challengers in the next primaries should they move towards the center, the only likely salvation for the party as a whole.

The Grand Old Party is in a "catch 22" situation. If they moderate their ideological positions it will get them some desperately needed mainstream support but it will infuriate their base. If they double down on their conservative positions they solidify their base but move farther from the new political mainstream, particularly the youth vote. I suspect we will hear the Party leaders invoke the name of Ronald Reagan and proclaim that they intend to return to the conservatives values of his era. As the Country moves forward, their fateful strategy will be to move forward by going backwards 25 years. Their effectiveness in creating an extremist base is proving to be a bittersweet success.

Grounding the Polls

The latest polling data can be interpreted to predict either a blowout for Senator Barack Obama, or to indicate that Senator John McCain is easily within striking distance. Many of the critical state races are either within the margin of error, or close enough to give the challenger a reasonable opportunity for victory. Should the margin swing just a few points in several states, Senator Obama's sure victory becomes a razor thin loss.

However, the polls are just one part of the data which predicts the outcome. The best analogy I can summon is that of a swimmer recognizing an object approaching him as a shark's fin. The fin is a sure sign of serious danger, yet it is only an indicator. The real danger is below the fin, the part that actually does the biting is below the surface. The Obama team's ground game is deadly.

Howard Dean's 50 State strategy is clear and apparent in the Obama game plan. The Obama campaign is dedicating huge amounts of money and effort to the grassroots efforts more commonly referred to as the "ground game." The strategy of investing heavily in the field work and aggressively attacking the Republicans in states which they traditionally carry will show up much more prominently at the polling booths than has been reflected by the polling data. The poll numbers do not accurately reflect the effect of the Obama Camp's 5 million nationwide volunteers and their herculean two year effort to register new voters. Hundreds of thousands, or more likely millions of these new voters will not show up in polling data as likely voters, nor be counted in any of the pre-election statistics. Many non-traditional voters have only a cell phone and therefor will never receive the calls necessary to be counted in the traditionally run polls. The Obama grassroots numbers are astounding; 5 million volunteers, over 400,000 doors knocked on daily, and 82 field offices in Ohio alone. In Montana, nearly 25,000 new voters between the age of 18 and 35, a demographic which heavily favors Obama, were registered since January 1, 2008. This in a State which saw only 456,096 votes were cast in the 2004 election and currently shows dead even in the polls.

I predict an overwhelming victory for Senator Obama. Senator Obama will quite possibly carry every coastal State from Maine to Florida and a number of Congressional races will be shocking upsets in favor of the Democrats. Both Georgia and South Carolina have strong chances of turning blue due to African American and youth turnout. There will be nothing remotely close about this election. Come Wednesday, you'll likely need a history book to find a Republican in Congress. How long before the news pundits give Howard Dean the genius status they awarded Karl Rove?

Palin Unsure if She is Viewed as a Fool

Apparently Sarah Palin is not totally convinced that she is viewed by the majority of Americans as a blithering idiot. Perceiving that as a problem she has once again set to the task of immitating that loveable stooge, Moe Howard, and demonstrating her limited intellect. During an interview with a Colorado NBC News affiliate Governor Palin had the opportunity to respond to a question submitted by a third grade student who wanted to know what the Vice President does. Having apparently forgotten significant portions of the constitution Governor Palin responded

"[T]hey’re in charge of the U.S. Senate so if they want to they can really get in there with the senators and make a lot of good policy changes that will make life better for Brandon and his family and his classroom. "

A casual glance at the constitution would reveal to Governor Palin that the Vice President's duties are limited to becoming President if the President is unable to serve, casting a vote in the event of a Senate Deadlock, and to preside over and certify the official vote count of the U.S. Electoral College.

Governor Palin represents all that is wrong with her Party. She is a simple minded ideologue who garners support from the base because of her image rather than her competence. She reminds us how George Bush became President and why we must never again elect the "guy (or gal) you would like to have a beer with."

The Republican Version of Righting the Ship

Fourteen days from now, the GOP will have some serious soul searching to do. The Party which held universal power in government just three years ago will be licking it's massive wounds. Who would have guessed that such disastrous foreign and domestic polices could have lead to a democratic landslide? Certainly not Karl Rove, their amoral chief strategist.

Garland's theory of universal irony will no doubt present a significant roadblock to the reconstruction the Republican brand. One of the rules of this theory is that your greatest strength is also your greatest weakness. The GOP's strength has been that their base, roughly 25% of the country, are ideologues who support their far right wing policies regardless of the outcome. This gives them a tremendous advantage during elections because they need only muster another 26%, by hook or crook, to win. The commensurate weakness is that this 25% will be loathe to buy into the centrist shift necessary to realign with the rest of America and re-emerge as a political power in four to eight years. Instead the preference of the base will be to scapegoat the media, minorities, and the McCain campaign. They will surely ignore the misguided policies which lead to this inevitable clash with reality. This organization will face the principle stumbling block of addicts and alcoholics, you can't fix a problem until you accept that there is a problem and that your actions created the problem.

The GOP faithful maintains strict adherence to the rule of fools. When something doesn't work wise men change course, fools do more of it.